Now Ze German is trekking to the south west (?) and they have pushed the forecast over to the west of us and pushed landfall back to early Tuesday. Yesterday they had him making landfall as a Cat 2 and now they bumped it up to a Cat 3 even though he weakened last night. But hold on! The spaghetti is “in agreement” so he’s got that going for him.

What sucks about the latest landfall is it puts New Orleans in the dread NE corridor where all the shit hits the fan. Check this Ivan satellite and watch the red stuff to see an example. Somewhere in there the house I grew up in was destroyed.

I wonder why the Jamaicans are so calm? Funny that the thing is right above them and they are still watching it. I know! It must be all the Red Stripe and Ganja! (Mental note to get some Red Stripe).

2008 is going to be remembered as the the year of the fucked-up Gulf and Caribbean storms. Look at this.

Then Hannah is out there making an appearance. It’s crazy out there y’all. Keep watchin’.

All this hurricane and Katrina talk has me thinking about a post made by an ignorant little Florida girl a while back. It was called “Hurricanes, Florida Style” and though I already retorted I saw something a week or so ago that made me think of it again.

You said a lot of ignorant things in that post but when you said…

We get hurricane warnings constantly. Most of the time, I yawn. And honestly, if it’s a Category 1 or 2, it’s a non-event… unless, of course, you are a surfer, in which case you can be counted upon to be at the beach trying to take advantage of the good waves, all the way up to a Category 4, when police have to be there to forcibly keep them away.

I knew it didn’t say much for you or the surfers. Then when I saw this…

I thought of you and the surfers. And Fay was just an itty bitty tropical storm.

Edit 2: Oh, I know why Gustav is coming this weekend. It’s God punishing us again. How many times can a community get smote in one decade? Say, that reminds me, have Y’all seen this?

Edit:From the 2 p.m. forecast discussion out of NHC, “One should not read much into such shifts of the forecast track since the typical error of a 5-day prediction is over 300 miles.”

Our local paper’s Web site has ordered us to clean out your freezer today and asking Just what is a 3-day emergency food supply? Meanwhile, “the West Bank levee board and some businesses have installed a robust line of wire cages filled with sand along that southern stretch.”

It’s actually more comforting to have the track pointing right at New Orleans 100 hours out.

Here is Ivan 6 days out.

Katrina 4 days out.

Rita three days out

And then there is the spaghetti which is not in agreement.

And just to fully adorn my amateur meteorologist cap, I think the next day is going to matter a lot as to the German’s final destination.

Gustav is worrisome. But let’s save the panic for the weekend shall we? Because I’m wanting to see Vavavoom at Mimi’s on Friday and sell some art on Saturday. Might be a clearance!

Fay was easily dismissed. She either was never headed in New Orleans’ direction and by the time she did, she was faded Fay.

Not so much the case with this Gustav, who has an entire warm and fuel-rich Gulf to cross before he reaches landfall. Monsters are created in that trek. All the tracks point to a landfall west of us which, if it’s a small storm and is far enough west would be fine for us and bad for Acadiana or beyond. But this one isn’t something that can be dismissed just yet and it’s worrisome. Not easily dismissed like Fay. If he becomes one of those Cat 5 monsters that swallows up the Gulf like Ivan, Rita and Katrina and makes landfall in W. Jeff, Lafourche or Terrebone it would be awful for everyone there and us.

He’s got plenty of time to turn.

But then there are two Cape Verde lows out there with medium potential for formation as well.

If any one is dreading having to watch any of the “three-headed monster” of 24-hour news channels, there is hope!

WYES is covering it!

So less BS hopefully.

I love this channel. Y’all ever catch “Stepping Out“? It’s awesome.

There was a lot going on so I can’t present much of genuine article covering the event so I will just result to bullet points…

- Buffa’s was energized and kinetic. The bleu cheese coleslaw was delectable. My particular favorite part was IG Robert Cerasoli quoting Jeffrey to Jeffrey. It seemed to be a moment where he and all the bloggers listening realized this stuff we hammer out on our keyboards and post into the aether can one day put us right in front of its subject. That said, Cerasoli was a mensch. Did you know he sleeps on an air mattress and lives out of luggage?

- After a chaotic morning running cambros of coffee and fresh baked pastries around in “Nancy” my two-door Toyota Tercel, I made it to the conference and indulged coffee that mixed oh-so-well with the fried potstickers and jalapeno quiche from the night before.

- The room was sultry and cavernous.

- I liked the “Oprah” setup but perhaps next year we can negotiate some risers. I know some folks who can do wonders with 3/4″ plywood and cinder blocks!

- I liked John Barry’s speech. I need to read his book. Unfortunately, he often left the more interesting stuff out and noted that it could be found in the book. I don’t want to sound like a know-it-all but a lot of what he said was review for me. It slips my mind which blogger I mentioned that to who replied they like to hear such things in person because it is more “nuanced” and I see her point. Must read that book.

- I was moving around a lot and drawn into several conversations during the education panel but the one thing I drew from it was I would be up at night worrying about my kid’s future if they were subjected to the chaos. The panelists were superb and received many raves from the folks around me.

- Lunch by J’anitas rocked but there was some discussion as to what the white meat was. I was convinced it was Turkey but many others said it was pork. I guess I’ll defer to the popular opinion on that. The tater salad was off da hook!

- Jeffrey’s media panel was the highlight of the day for me as it featured Lee Zurik’s line of the day, “My eyebrows are real!” I’ve never doubted they were but the real questions are: Are they manicured and how often? Mad props to all the panelists. I do think someone from talk radio and a Times-Picayune columnist would have rounded out the panel but what we had was also unique in that it presented the bloggers and those who have embraced them.

- I hated to ask my question on anonymity on the Internet after Nola.com blogger Big Red Cotton just finished asking a question stating she blogged anonymously, but the subject means a lot to me. How can anyone get behind what you say if you can’t get behind it yourself? It’s a lot easier to dismiss a username. And yes, my name is Lance Vargas and I am a resident of New Orleans, I can be reached at 250-1643.

- Next up was Sandy Rosenthal’s Levees.org video which was actually another review. I am sure it will play well to people who need education about Katrina but everyone in this crowd was pretty well educated about it in the first place. I do want to thank Sandy for buying breakfast though!

- The politics panel was up next and I liked having it at the end of the day as the audience was much looser and enjoyed it better as a result. I didn’t like hearing an actual candidate speak from the audience as I always thought the Conference was for citizens and not politicians.

- Also, when asking a question at one of these things there are a few simple rules: 1.) Please introduce a short context to your question then ask the question. 2.) Actually ask a question.

- All the deserving awards were given out and all were very appropriate. Sure did miss Ashley Morris today.

- I enjoyed meeting for the first time Brad V., Scott Harney and Ali Dejong who also happens to be hardcore.

- I happened to have a need for a .44 for an upcoming art project so when I saw Pistolette kicking it in the crowd with armory silk screened on her shirt I figured she might be the one to ask. She did not have one but said she knew someone who did. Hook a brotha up! Even though she seems like a chick who would cut your balls off on her blog, she is quite nice and has a good sense of humor.

- My man Clay showed up in style again! This time he went with seersucker over linen!

- Didn’t get to talk to Swampwoman or Mermaid enough.

- Phrase of the day: Tits on a Bishop!

- Afterwords at the conveniently named Rendezvous I watched football with Jeffrey and enjoyed meaningful conversations with Dangerblond, Racy Mind, Mominem, Folse, Sophmom, G-Bitch and DSB.

Edit: I also enjoyed speaking with Celcus (who should blog more) and ole Tim Ruppert.

Humble bloggers Liprap, Adrastos and I will be on Eric Asher’s WIST radio show today extolling the virtues of this weekend’s Rising Tide conference. Tune into 690 on your AM dial to hear us go on about blogging RT and whatever else comes up.

Edit: We will be on the show when the the bottom three dimensions pass through the moment in the fourth known as 1:30 pm. Thanks Pants!

And just for the record, I publicly denounce Michael Weiner for, well, being Michael Savage.

If you aren’t by the radio, they also stream and podcast. So there won’t be a reason not to listen other than general ambivalence! But even if you don’t listen, take heart that the waves carrying our voices will be flowing through your body on their way into deep space!

Nagin’s deadly sins flyer is ready.

A PDF is uploaded below. Anyone attending Friday night’s Ritz protest please download, print and distribute.

Nagin’s Deadly Sins (PDF)

Just a few updates to these two posts…

Mainstream Media Vs. Scuttlebutt!

I saw Ms. Donna on the levee this afternoon and asked her about the incident and she said it was at this house and the woman was not charged. According to DNN, “He beat her. He was always beating her.”

Also, I have added some links to “Nagin’s Deadly Sins” but I still need some help adding media sources to back them up. I know you guys can think of something to help so please post links in the comments. Help a brother out. I particularly need links to show Nagin taking unnecessary trips. Also, more links in which he divided the city along racial lines.

Edit: I removed the request for proof of Nagin’s family living in Dallas as it seems they do indeed live in New Orleans.

TS Fay has finally made her expected NNW turn and damn if she didn’t have me concerned there for a while. Expectations were for her to make the turn earlier but she hung on a little longer than expected. Some computer models yesterday evening had her landfall at Mobile Bay. I’ve always trusted the models but I recall once in 2005 they were a tad inaccurate. If you believe in infinity, then you must also believe there is a universe where that storm did turn and crash into that much less inhabited area with much less time and ocean over which to strengthen…

Fay is the first storm in which I depended on Weather Underground to track. Once inside, visitors to this fantastic site will see how it far outpaces local weather reports and even the NHC in the amount of information it renders. I like the storm surge maps in particular because much of the damage I have seen inflicted comes from them. I mean, look at this map! There was talk a while back about creating a Saffer-Simpson type scale to measure storm surge. Sounds like a good idea to me considering Katrina was a Category-3 storm at Buras but the day before it was a whirlwind Category-5 with huge ocean swells that didn’t go anywhere once the winds settled down.

Speaking of surges, who knew Lake Okeechobee got a storm surge? Guess it works it’s way through the swamps. So the wetlands don’t really matter?